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Demario Douglas

Demario Douglas Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 2

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots

Demario Douglas Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-111/-113).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 27.5 @ -113.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The New England Patriots have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).

The predictive model expects the New England Patriots to be the 7th-most pass-focused offense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 62.7% pass rate.

Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally correlate with better passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced run volume.

With an outstanding 76.9% Adjusted Completion% (92nd percentile) since the start of last season, DeMario Douglas places among the most reliable receivers in the NFL when it comes to WRs.

The Dolphins pass defense has been gouged for the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (69.8%) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season (69.8%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given the game dynamics and play styles of each team, our trusted projections expect this game (with an average of 27.12 seconds per play) will chug along at the 11th-most sluggish tempo out of all the games this week.

The New England Patriots offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

With a feeble 7.2 adjusted yards per target (15th percentile) since the start of last season, DeMario Douglas stands as one of the worst WRs in the league in the league.

With a subpar 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) since the start of last season, DeMario Douglas places among the leading wide receivers in the game in the league in the open field.

The Dolphins defense has given up the 9th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 130.0) to wideouts since the start of last season.

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