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Demario Douglas

Demario Douglas Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 18

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins

 
 
 
Demario Douglas Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-111/-111).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The predictive model expects the New England Patriots offensive blueprint to skew 4.4% more towards the passing attack than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels now calling the plays.
  • The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may drop.
  • The New England O-line profiles as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
  • DeMario Douglas's 9.7 adjusted yards per target this year indicates a significant gain in his pass-catching skills over last year's 7.6 figure.
  • This year, the shaky Dolphins pass defense has surrendered a colossal 67.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 5th-worst rate in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game's spread implies an extreme throwing game script for the Patriots, who are giant -8.5-point underdogs.
  • Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Patriots to pass on 53.2% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by the predictive model to see only 125.7 offensive plays run: the 3rd-lowest number among all games this week.
  • DeMario Douglas has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (36.2% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (68.7%).
  • DeMario Douglas has posted significantly fewer air yards this season (22.0 per game) than he did last season (29.0 per game).

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