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Demario Douglas

Demario Douglas Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Demario Douglas Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-140/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ +105.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -3-point disadvantage, the Patriots are underdogs in this game, implying more of a reliance on throwing than their usual approach.
  • Right now, the 5th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (64.1% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the New England Patriots.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in football.
  • When talking about pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the New England Patriots grades out as the 8th-best in football this year.
  • DeMario Douglas's receiving effectiveness has gotten better this season, accumulating 9.98 adjusted yards-per-target compared to just 7.61 mark last season.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Patriots to run the 5th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • DeMario Douglas's 38.7% Route Participation Rate this year conveys a meaningful drop-off in his passing offense workload over last year's 68.7% rate.
  • DeMario Douglas has accumulated quite a few less adjusted receiving yards per game (24.0) this season than he did last season (40.0).
  • DeMario Douglas's 75.2% Adjusted Completion% this year illustrates a noteable regression in his receiving prowess over last year's 78.7% figure.
  • DeMario Douglas's skills in grinding out extra yardage have worsened this season, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 5.32 mark last season.

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