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Demario Douglas

Demario Douglas Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 15

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Demario Douglas Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-111/-113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -111.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect the New England Patriots to be the 5th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.0% pass rate.
  • The New England Patriots O-line grades out as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
  • DeMario Douglas's 10.1 adjusted yards per target this season reflects a noteable improvement in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 7.6 figure.
  • The Buffalo cornerbacks project as the 3rd-worst collection of CBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Patriots are forecasted by the model to run just 61.8 total plays in this game: the fewest among all teams this week.
  • Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Bills, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.5 per game) this year.
  • DeMario Douglas has been used less as a potential target this year (39.5% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (68.7%).
  • DeMario Douglas has totaled quite a few less adjusted receiving yards per game (28.0) this season than he did last season (40.0).
  • DeMario Douglas's 75.4% Adjusted Catch% this season indicates a remarkable diminishment in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 78.7% rate.

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