Demario Douglas Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Demario Douglas

NFL · Player Props

Demario Douglas

WR · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 5:02 PM EST

Analysis

Demario Douglas Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 26.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a big 8.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The predictive model expects the New England Patriots as the 8th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 61.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.32 seconds per play.
The Dolphins pass defense has been gouged for the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (72.3%) versus wideouts this year (72.3%).

Favors Under

When talking about pass protection (and the effect it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Patriots ranks as the 10th-worst in the league this year.
With a bad 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) this year, Demario Douglas places among the top WRs in the NFL in the league in the open field.
The Dolphins pass defense has excelled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.84 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-fewest in the NFL.
As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Miami's collection of safeties has been very good this year, ranking as the best in football.

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