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Demarcus Robinson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-130/-100).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -130.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The 49ers may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be starting backup quarterback Mac Jones.At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the 49ers are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on passing than their standard approach.The model projects the 49ers as the 5th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 61.1% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the San Francisco 49ers are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run 66.1 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-highest number on the slate this week.The 49ers have run the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 64.2 plays per game.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Demarcus Robinson comes in as one of the worst possession receivers in the NFL, hauling in just 51.4% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, grading out in the 3rd percentile among wide receiversWith a lackluster 2.03 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (18th percentile) since the start of last season, Demarcus Robinson stands as one of the best pass-catching WRs in the league in picking up extra yardage.This year, the daunting Buccaneers defense has given up a puny 131.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing WRs: the 9th-best in football.This year, the tough Buccaneers defense has surrendered the 5th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing WRs: a mere 7.1 yards.The Buccaneers safeties profile as the 3rd-best group of safeties in the league this year in covering receivers.
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