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Demarcus Robinson

Demarcus Robinson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Indianapolis Colts vs San Francisco 49ers

 
 
 
Demarcus Robinson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (+108/-142).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ -142.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The San Francisco 49ers have called the 8th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a massive 59.4 plays per game.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • The Colts defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inducing opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (38.9 per game) this year.
  • Demarcus Robinson's possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 51.1% to 63.3%.
  • The Indianapolis Colts defense has given up the most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (178.0) vs. WRs this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's spread implies a rushing game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 4 points.
  • Our trusted projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to be the 5th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 57.7% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to see only 125.6 plays on offense run: the lowest number among all games this week.
  • After totaling 58.0 air yards per game last year, Demarcus Robinson has seen a big downtick this year, now sitting at 33.0 per game.
  • Demarcus Robinson's 20.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 33.3.

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