Demarcus Robinson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Demarcus Robinson

NFL · Player Props

Demarcus Robinson

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 16, 2025

Updated Dec 23, 2025 1:17 AM UTC

Analysis

Demarcus Robinson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (+108/-142).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ -142.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The San Francisco 49ers have called the 8th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a massive 59.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Colts defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inducing opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (38.9 per game) this year.
Demarcus Robinson's possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 51.1% to 63.3%.
The Indianapolis Colts defense has given up the most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (178.0) vs. WRs this year.

Favors Under

This week's spread implies a rushing game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 4 points.
Our trusted projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to be the 5th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 57.7% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to see only 125.6 plays on offense run: the lowest number among all games this week.
After totaling 58.0 air yards per game last year, Demarcus Robinson has seen a big downtick this year, now sitting at 33.0 per game.
Demarcus Robinson's 20.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 33.3.

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