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Deebo Samuel

Deebo Samuel Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 9

Washington Commanders vs Seattle Seahawks

 
 
 
Deebo Samuel Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+166/-176).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -182 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -176.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The predictive model expects the Commanders to call the 5th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 68.4 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
  • The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (2-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while rush volume may slide.
  • The Seahawks defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the most passes in the NFL (42.0 per game) this year.
  • Deebo Samuel Sr. has put up far more air yards this year (48.0 per game) than he did last year (37.0 per game).
  • Deebo Samuel Sr.'s 55.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 38.2.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 56.7% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • At the moment, the 6th-most run-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (47.2% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Commanders.
  • The Commanders have run the 8th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 53.1 plays per game.
  • Deebo Samuel Sr., who has been given 4.0% of his offense's carries near the end zone this year (98th percentile), finds himself in the unique position (for a wideout) of being involved in the Washington red zone run game.
  • With an outstanding ratio of 0.12 rushing TDs per game (97th percentile), Deebo Samuel Sr. stands as one of the leading rushing touchdown-scorers in the NFL when it comes to wide receivers and tight ends this year.

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