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Deebo Samuel

Deebo Samuel Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5

Los Angeles Chargers vs Washington Commanders

Deebo Samuel Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+154/-180).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -184 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -180.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan.

Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders to be the 10th-least pass-focused offense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 59.7% pass rate.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Commanders are expected by the projections to call 67.1 plays on offense in this contest: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.

The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower run volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The model projects Deebo Samuel Sr. to be a much bigger part of his team's passing offense near the goal line this week (25.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (20.0% in games he has played).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Washington Commanders have called the 9th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 54.0 plays per game.

In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the impact it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Commanders ranks as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year.

With a fantastic ratio of 0.20 TDs on the ground per game (100th percentile), Deebo Samuel Sr. has been as one of the top rushing touchdown-scorers in the NFL when it comes to WRs and TEs this year.

Since the start of last season, the imposing Los Angeles Chargers defense has given up a paltry 69.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 7th-smallest rate in the NFL.

The Chargers defense has given up the fewest receiving touchdowns in football to wide receivers: 0.25 per game this year.

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