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Deebo Samuel

Deebo Samuel Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders

Deebo Samuel Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+186/-210).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -220 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -210.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Washington Commanders will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Marcus Mariota in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.

The predictive model expects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.5% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

The model projects the Commanders to run the 7th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.4 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.

The Commanders have run the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a staggering 59.3 plays per game.

The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At the moment, the 4th-most run-heavy offense in football near the end zone (48.3% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Washington Commanders.

The Commanders are willing to include receivers in their running game, and Deebo Samuel Sr. has garnered 7.7% of red zone carries this year (0th among wide receivers).

With a terrific rate of 0.25 TDs on the ground per game (100th percentile), Deebo Samuel Sr. has been among the top rushing TD-scorers in the NFL when it comes to wide receivers and tight ends this year.

More Deebo Samuel Player Props

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