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Deebo Samuel

Deebo Samuel Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

Washington Commanders vs Las Vegas Raiders

Deebo Samuel Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+170/-230).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -215 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -230.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Washington Commanders may take to the air less in this week's game (and call more carries) given that they be rolling with backup quarterback Marcus Mariota.

The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Washington Commanders have called the 3rd-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 59.9 plays per game.

While Deebo Samuel Sr. has received 17.4% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the model projects him to be a more integral piece of Washington's pass game near the end zone in this contest at 23.7%.

Deebo Samuel Sr.'s ball-catching skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 63.6% to 82.0%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's spread indicates a running game script for the Commanders, who are favored by 3 points.

The model projects the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-most run-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 46.8% red zone run rate.

Deebo Samuel Sr., who has garnered 11.6% of his team's rush attempts near the end zone since the start of last season (100th percentile), is fortunate to be in the unique position (for a wide receiver) of being involved in the Commanders red zone run game.

Deebo Samuel Sr. has rushed for 0.12 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the biggest marks in football among WRs and TEs (96th percentile).

More Deebo Samuel Player Props

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