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Deebo Samuel

Deebo Samuel Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys

 
 
 
Deebo Samuel Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+230/-250).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -275 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -250.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Commanders may throw the ball less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) given that they be forced to start backup QB Josh Johnson.
  • A passing game script is implied by the Commanders being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's game.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to see 132.1 total plays run: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game versus the Cowboys defense this year: 9th-most in football.
  • Deebo Samuel Sr.'s 47.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 38.2.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the moment, the 2nd-most run-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (50.2% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Commanders.
  • The 7th-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Washington Commanders this year (just 54.5 per game on average).
  • Deebo Samuel Sr., who has earned 4.6% of his team's carries near the goal line this year (97th percentile), is fortunate to be in the unique position (for a WR) of being involved in the Washington Commanders red zone rushing attack.
  • Deebo Samuel Sr. has run for 0.06 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest figures in football among wide receivers and tight ends (91st percentile).
  • When it comes to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Dallas's unit has been awful this year, ranking as the worst in football. in football.

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