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Deebo Samuel Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 14

Minnesota Vikings vs Washington Commanders

Deebo Samuel Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+225/-255).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -265 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -255.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Deebo Samuel Sr.'s 49.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 38.2.

Deebo Samuel Sr.'s receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 63.6% to 79.0%.

Deebo Samuel Sr. grades out in the 87th percentile among wide receivers as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a terrific 0.42 per game.

As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Minnesota's DT corps has been terrific this year, projecting as the best in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-most run-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 47.5% red zone run rate.

The model projects this game to see the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to pass too much against the Vikings, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 29.2 per game) this year.

The Commanders are willing to include receivers in their run game, and Deebo Samuel Sr. has been given 5.8% of red zone carries this year (0th among wideouts).

With an exceptional ratio of 0.08 rushing touchdowns per game (90th percentile), Deebo Samuel Sr. stands as one of the best rushing touchdown-scorers in football when it comes to WRs and TEs this year.

More Deebo Samuel Player Props

Deebo Samuel TouchdownsPlayer Prop Week 14

Minnesota Vikings vs Washington Commanders

Deebo Samuel Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 14