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Deebo Samuel Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders

Deebo Samuel Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+196/-200).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -200 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -200.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Washington Commanders will be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.

The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.

Deebo Samuel Sr.'s 52.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 38.2.

Deebo Samuel Sr.'s possession skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 63.6% to 79.2%.

With a remarkable rate of 0.40 per game through the air (85th percentile), Deebo Samuel Sr. has been as one of the top receiving touchdown-scorers in the NFL among wideouts this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Washington Commanders to pass on 55.7% of their plays: the 9th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

The leading projections forecast the Commanders to be the 4th-most run-focused team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 49.2% red zone run rate.

The model projects the Commanders to call the 6th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Commanders have called the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 53.1 plays per game.

Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Miami Dolphins, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 29.6 per game) this year.

More Deebo Samuel Player Props

Deebo Samuel TouchdownsPlayer Prop Week 11

Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders

Deebo Samuel Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11