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Deebo Samuel

Deebo Samuel Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 10

Washington Commanders vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
Deebo Samuel Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+210/-220).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -225 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -220.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Commanders may take to the air less in this game (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling out backup QB Marcus Mariota.
  • An extreme passing game script is implied by the Commanders being a heavy -8-point underdog in this week's game.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Commanders offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 27.57 seconds per snap.
  • Deebo Samuel Sr. has been heavily involved in his team's pass game near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 33.3% this year, which places him in the 98th percentile when it comes to WRs.
  • After accruing 37.0 air yards per game last year, Deebo Samuel Sr. has gotten better this year, now sitting at 42.0 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Commanders to be the 3rd-most run-centric team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 48.6% red zone run rate.
  • Deebo Samuel Sr. has run for 0.10 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest marks in the league among wide receivers and tight ends (92nd percentile).
  • This year, the fierce Lions defense has conceded a meager 66.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 6th-lowest rate in football.

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