Deebo Samuel Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Deebo Samuel

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Rushing Yards

Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 26, 2022 2:00 AM UTC

Analysis

Deebo Samuel Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-140/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 30.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 30.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 6th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 46.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to accumulate 4.6 carries in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers and tight ends.
The 49ers are willing to include receivers in their running game, and Deebo Samuel has earned 15.6% of rush attempts this year (99th percentile).
Deebo Samuel has averaged 28.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in the NFL among wide receivers and tight ends (100th percentile).
Deebo Samuel's ground effectiveness (8.94 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (86th percentile among wide receivers and tight ends).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 116.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 61.5 plays per game.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 10th-least yards in the league (just 105 per game) against the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season.
The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.4% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.