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Deebo Samuel

Deebo Samuel Receptions
Player Prop Week 8

Kansas City Chiefs vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Deebo Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+100/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -135.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Washington Commanders will be forced to utilize backup QB Marcus Mariota in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
  • At a -10.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are giant underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their typical approach.
  • The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.
  • Our trusted projections expect Deebo Samuel Sr. to notch 8.6 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile among WRs.
  • The Chiefs pass defense has conceded the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (67.9%) vs. wide receivers this year (67.9%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Washington Commanders to pass on 59.8% of their chances: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week.
  • The Washington Commanders have run the fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 53.7 plays per game.
  • Opposing teams teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Kansas City Chiefs, totaling the fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 29.1 per game) this year.
  • When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Kansas City's group of CBs has been outstanding this year, profiling as the best in football.

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