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Deebo Samuel

Deebo Samuel Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Los Angeles Chargers vs Washington Commanders

Deebo Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+120/-123).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -136 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -123.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan.

Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders to be the 10th-least pass-focused offense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 59.7% pass rate.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Commanders are expected by the projections to call 67.1 plays on offense in this contest: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.

The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower run volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The predictive model expects Deebo Samuel Sr. to garner 9.5 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 96th percentile among wide receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Washington Commanders have called the 9th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 54.0 plays per game.

In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the impact it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Commanders ranks as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year.

This year, the formidable Los Angeles Chargers defense has conceded a measly 59.7% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 7th-smallest rate in the league.

When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Los Angeles's unit has been phenomenal this year, profiling as the 6th-best in the NFL.

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