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Deebo Samuel

Deebo Samuel Receptions
Player Prop Week 18

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Deebo Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -130.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Washington Commanders will be forced to start backup quarterback Josh Johnson in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
  • At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are big underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of a focus on throwing than their standard game plan.
  • To the extent of a defense's impact on tempo, at 29.76 seconds per play, the predictive model expects the Commanders as the 3rd-slowest in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now.
  • In this game, Deebo Samuel Sr. is projected by the projection model to position himself in the 89th percentile among wideouts with 7.6 targets.
  • Deebo Samuel Sr.'s 24.8% Target Rate this season reflects a significant boost in his pass attack workload over last season's 18.6% rate.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Commanders to be the 9th-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 54.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • This year, the daunting Philadelphia Eagles defense has given up a mere 59.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 2nd-smallest rate in the league.
  • As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Philadelphia's collection of LBs has been great this year, projecting as the best in the NFL.

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