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Deebo Samuel

Deebo Samuel Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles

 
 
 
Deebo Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-117/+111).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -151 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +111.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Commanders, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
  • At the moment, the 9th-quickest paced offense in the league (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Washington Commanders.
  • The predictive model expects Deebo Samuel Sr. to accumulate 7.9 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 90th percentile among wideouts.
  • Deebo Samuel Sr.'s 25.4% Target% this season conveys a significant growth in his passing attack volume over last season's 18.6% rate.
  • Deebo Samuel Sr. comes in as one of the leading wide receivers in the league this year, averaging an exceptional 4.4 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 91st percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Commanders to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 57.9% pass rate.
  • The Eagles pass defense has given up the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (57.3%) vs. wide receivers this year (57.3%).

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