reorder

Deebo Samuel Receptions
Player Prop Week 14

Minnesota Vikings vs Washington Commanders

Deebo Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+115/-147).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -161 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

In this game, Deebo Samuel Sr. is predicted by the projections to place in the 84th percentile among wideouts with 7.6 targets.

Deebo Samuel Sr. has been a more integral piece of his team's passing game this season (25.4% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (18.6%).

Deebo Samuel Sr.'s play as a receiver has been refined this year, accumulating 4.9 adjusted catches compared to just 3.6 last year.

Deebo Samuel Sr.'s receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 63.6% to 79.0%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Commanders have been the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 57.9% pass rate.

The model projects this game to see the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to pass too much against the Vikings, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 29.2 per game) this year.

More Deebo Samuel Player Props

Deebo Samuel ReceptionsPlayer Prop Week 14

Minnesota Vikings vs Washington Commanders

Deebo Samuel Receptions
Player Prop Week 14