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Deebo Samuel Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders

Deebo Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-124/+115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +111 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Washington Commanders will be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.

The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.

In this contest, Deebo Samuel Sr. is forecasted by the predictive model to position himself in the 90th percentile among wide receivers with 8.5 targets.

Deebo Samuel Sr. has been a more important option in his offense's pass game this season (27.1% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (18.6%).

Deebo Samuel Sr.'s pass-catching performance gotten a boost this season, accumulating 4.7 adjusted receptions vs just 3.6 last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Washington Commanders to pass on 55.6% of their plays: the 9th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

The model projects the Commanders to call the 8th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Commanders have called the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 53.1 plays per game.

Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Miami Dolphins, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 29.6 per game) this year.

The Miami Dolphins safeties profile as the 10th-best group of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.

More Deebo Samuel Player Props

Deebo Samuel ReceptionsPlayer Prop Week 11

Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders

Deebo Samuel Receptions
Player Prop Week 11