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Deebo Samuel
NFL · Player Props
Deebo Samuel
WR · San Francisco 49ers
Receptions
Buffalo Bills vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 13, 2024 Updated Dec 2, 2024 1:21 AM EST
NFL Props Deebo Samuel Receptions

Deebo Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-143/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +123 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +110.

Favors Over
  • A passing game script is implied by the 49ers being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 35.2 pass attempts per game versus the Bills defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
  • The Bills pass defense has conceded the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (71.3%) versus WRs this year (71.3%).
  • When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Buffalo's LB corps has been terrible this year, profiling as the worst in football.
Favors Under
  • Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the 49ers to pass on 59.0% of their plays: the 10th-highest rate among all teams this week.
  • The predictive model expects the 49ers to run the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.5 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • The 49ers have run the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 56.8 plays per game.
  • The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
  • Deebo Samuel's 42.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 49.2.
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