Deebo Samuel Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Deebo Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Deebo Samuel

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 13, 2024

Updated Dec 2, 2024 1:21 AM EST

Analysis

Deebo Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-143/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +123 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is implied by the 49ers being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.2 pass attempts per game versus the Bills defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
The Bills pass defense has conceded the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (71.3%) versus WRs this year (71.3%).
When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Buffalo's LB corps has been terrible this year, profiling as the worst in football.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the 49ers to pass on 59.0% of their plays: the 10th-highest rate among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects the 49ers to run the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.5 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 49ers have run the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 56.8 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Deebo Samuel's 42.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 49.2.

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