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Deebo Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-145/+110).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -145.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The predictive model expects Deebo Samuel to garner 7.9 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 88th percentile among wide receivers.With a sizeable 21.2% Target Share (79th percentile) last year, Deebo Samuel ranks as one of the WRs with the most usage in the NFL.Deebo Samuel profiles as one of the top wide receivers in the NFL last year, averaging a terrific 4.7 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 85th percentile.Deebo Samuel profiles as one of the most sure-handed receivers in football, catching an outstanding 71.7% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, checking in at the 83rd percentile among wide receivers.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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This game's spread suggests a running game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 5.5 points.The model projects the San Francisco 49ers as the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 55.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.The predictive model expects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.The San Francisco 49ers have called the fewest plays in the league last year, averaging a measly 53.5 plays per game.Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being projected in this game) typically cause lessened passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and higher rush volume.
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