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Deebo Samuel

Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Los Angeles Chargers vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 54.5 (+100/-112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 55.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 54.5 @ -112.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -3-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders to be the 10th-least pass-focused offense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 59.7% pass rate.
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Commanders are expected by the projections to call 67.1 plays on offense in this contest: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.
  • The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower run volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • The predictive model expects Deebo Samuel Sr. to garner 9.5 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 96th percentile among wide receivers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Washington Commanders have called the 9th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 54.0 plays per game.
  • In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the impact it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Commanders ranks as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year.
  • Deebo Samuel Sr.'s skills in generating extra yardage have worsened this year, compiling a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 8.25 rate last year.
  • This year, the formidable Los Angeles Chargers defense has conceded a measly 59.7% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 7th-smallest rate in the league.
  • This year, the tough Los Angeles Chargers defense has allowed the 8th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing WRs: a paltry 6.9 yards.

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