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Deebo Samuel

Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders

Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 50.5 (-115/-115).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Washington Commanders will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Marcus Mariota in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.

The predictive model expects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.5% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

The model projects the Commanders to run the 7th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.4 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.

The Commanders have run the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a staggering 59.3 plays per game.

The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Deebo Samuel Sr. has posted many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (35.0) this season than he did last season (46.0).

Deebo Samuel Sr.'s pass-game efficiency has diminished this year, averaging a measly 7.00 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 8.07 rate last year.

Deebo Samuel Sr.'s 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season shows a remarkable decrease in his effectiveness in space over last season's 8.3% mark.

Since the start of last season, the daunting Falcons pass defense has surrendered the 5th-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing wide receivers: a feeble 3.3 YAC.

When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, Atlanta's unit has been phenomenal since the start of last season, projecting as the 6th-best in the NFL.

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