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Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 46.5 (-145/+110).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 46.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 46.5 @ -145.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Washington Commanders will be forced to start backup quarterback Josh Johnson in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are big underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of a focus on throwing than their standard game plan.To the extent of a defense's impact on tempo, at 29.76 seconds per play, the predictive model expects the Commanders as the 3rd-slowest in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now.In this game, Deebo Samuel Sr. is projected by the projection model to position himself in the 89th percentile among wideouts with 7.6 targets.Deebo Samuel Sr.'s 24.8% Target Rate this season reflects a significant boost in his pass attack workload over last season's 18.6% rate.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Our trusted projections expect the Commanders to be the 9th-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 54.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.Deebo Samuel Sr.'s talent in generating extra yardage have tailed off this season, compiling just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 8.25 figure last season.This year, the daunting Philadelphia Eagles defense has given up a mere 59.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 2nd-smallest rate in the league.This year, the daunting Philadelphia Eagles defense has yielded the 7th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing wide receivers: a measly 7.6 yards.As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Philadelphia's collection of LBs has been great this year, projecting as the best in the NFL.
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