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Deebo Samuel

Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 11

Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 47.5 (-113/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 49.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 47.5 @ -105.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Washington Commanders will be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
  • The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.
  • In this contest, Deebo Samuel Sr. is forecasted by the predictive model to position himself in the 90th percentile among wide receivers with 8.5 targets.
  • Deebo Samuel Sr. has been a more important option in his offense's pass game this season (27.1% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (18.6%).
  • Deebo Samuel Sr.'s possession skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 63.6% to 79.2%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Washington Commanders to pass on 55.6% of their plays: the 9th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
  • The model projects the Commanders to call the 8th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The Commanders have called the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 53.1 plays per game.
  • Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Miami Dolphins, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 29.6 per game) this year.
  • Deebo Samuel Sr.'s skills in grinding out extra yardage have worsened this year, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 8.25 figure last year.

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