Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Deebo Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Deebo Samuel

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 8, 2024

Updated Oct 28, 2024 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 59.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 59.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 59.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on the game dynamics and traits of each team, the projections expect this game (with an average of 26.04 seconds per play) will speed along at the 3rd-quickest pace among all games this week.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a staggering 59.0 plays per game.
This week, Deebo Samuel is anticipated by the model to secure a spot in the 84th percentile among wideouts with 7.5 targets.
The model projects Deebo Samuel to be a more integral piece of his offense's pass game in this week's game (24.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (18.2% in games he has played).
After accumulating 46.0 air yards per game last year, Deebo Samuel has shown good development this year, now averaging 54.0 per game.

Favors Under

This game's line indicates a rushing game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 5.5 points.
The projections expect the San Francisco 49ers as the 7th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 52.9% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Cowboys defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.
Deebo Samuel's receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 69.3% to 60.6%.
Deebo Samuel's 9.2 adjusted yards per target this year illustrates a meaningful reduction in his pass-catching ability over last year's 10.4 figure.

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