Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 22

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Deebo Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Deebo Samuel

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 22, 2023

Updated Feb 11, 2024 10:31 PM EST

Analysis

Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 59.5 (+100/-124).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 56.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 59.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being projected in this game) usually mean increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower ground volume.
Our trusted projections expect Deebo Samuel to accumulate 7.9 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 91st percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
Deebo Samuel has notched far more air yards this year (40.0 per game) than he did last year (32.0 per game).
Deebo Samuel checks in as one of the top wide receivers in the league this year, averaging a remarkable 59.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 83rd percentile.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the 49ers as the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 58.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The 49ers have run the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 54.1 plays per game.
Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Chiefs, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (a mere 25.8 per game) this year.
Deebo Samuel has run fewer routes this season (75.9% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last season (86.8%).
When it comes to protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the San Francisco 49ers profiles as the worst in the league this year.

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