Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 19

NFL · Player Props

Deebo Samuel

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM EST

Analysis

Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 38.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 40.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 130.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Deebo Samuel's talent in grinding out extra yardage have gotten a boost this season, accumulating 9.43 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a measly 7.67 mark last season.
The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has not been good when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.86 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in the league.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a massive 9.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 49.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.
Deebo Samuel has put up significantly fewer air yards this season (32.0 per game) than he did last season (55.0 per game).
Deebo Samuel's 44.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 59.3.