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Deebo Samuel

Deebo Samuel Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 4

San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Rams

Deebo Samuel Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+180/-268).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +213 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +180.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Opposing teams have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the league.

Deebo Samuel has been an integral part of his team's pass game near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 15.5% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 77th percentile among WRs.

Deebo Samuel has received a colossal 25.6% of his team's air yards since the start of last season: 83rd percentile among wideouts.

Deebo Samuel's 57.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 88th percentile for wideouts.

The San Francisco 49ers O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The San Francisco 49ers have called the least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a measly 57.0 plays per game.

Deebo Samuel's ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 66.5% to 61.2%.

The Los Angeles Rams defense has yielded the 5th-least passing TDs in football to WRs: 0.75 per game since the start of last season.

The Los Angeles Rams cornerbacks grade out as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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