Deebo Samuel Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Deebo Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Deebo Samuel

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving TD

San Francisco 49ers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Deebo Samuel Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+230/-330).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The New Orleans Saints defense has given up the 10th-most passing TDs in the NFL to wideouts: 0.91 per game this year.
The New Orleans Saints cornerbacks rank as the worst group of CBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The New Orleans Saints pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace out of all the games this week, averaging 26.96 seconds per play given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.9 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.8 pass attempts per game versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to be a much smaller part of his offense's pass attack near the goal line this week (23.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (29.4% in games he has played).

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