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DeAndre Hopkins

DeAndre Hopkins Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 9

Miami Dolphins vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
DeAndre Hopkins Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+540/-670).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -650 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -670.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Baltimore Ravens will be rolling out backup QB Lamar Jackson this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
  • The predictive model expects DeAndre Hopkins to be a much bigger part of his offense's pass attack near the end zone in this contest (6.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
  • DeAndre Hopkins's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 71.2% to 74.3%.
  • Opposing teams have completed passes at the highest rate in the NFL versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year (77.5% Adjusted Completion%).
  • As it relates to the linebackers' role in run defense, Miami's unit has been very good this year, profiling as the 8th-best in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 7.5-point advantage, the Ravens are a massive favorite in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their standard game plan.
  • The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens as the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 46.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • Right now, the 5th-most run-focused offense in the league near the goal line (48.6% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Ravens.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to see just 120.9 offensive plays run: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
  • The 3rd-fewest plays in football have been called by the Baltimore Ravens this year (a lowly 50.1 per game on average).

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