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DeAndre Hopkins

DeAndre Hopkins Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
DeAndre Hopkins Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+640/-800).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -910 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -800.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This year, the feeble New England Patriots defense has been gouged for a massive 1.14 receiving touchdowns per game to opposing wideouts: the 5th-worst rate in football.
  • This year, the daunting Patriots run defense has allowed a paltry 0.50 rushing TDs per game to the opposing side: the 2nd-best rate in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Ravens are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a running game script.
  • The model projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 4th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 51.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects the Ravens to be the 7th-most run-oriented offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 47.7% red zone run rate.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the model to have just 127.0 total plays called: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.
  • The Baltimore Ravens have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 51.9 plays per game.

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