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DeAndre Hopkins

DeAndre Hopkins Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
DeAndre Hopkins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-190/+140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +145 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +140.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the model to see 132.7 offensive plays called: the 3rd-most out of all the games this week.
  • The Cleveland Browns pass defense has yielded the 9th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (67.6%) vs. WRs this year (67.6%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 7.5-point advantage, the Ravens are a huge favorite this week, indicating much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
  • The model projects the Ravens as the 2nd-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 49.3% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • The 3rd-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Baltimore Ravens this year (a lowly 51.6 per game on average).
  • The weather report calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Cleveland Browns, totaling the fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 27.1 per game) this year.

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