DeAndre Hopkins Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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DeAndre Hopkins

NFL · Player Props

DeAndre Hopkins

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Carolina Panthers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 12, 2024

Updated Nov 25, 2024 4:01 AM EST

Analysis

DeAndre Hopkins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 65.8% pass rate.
Our trusted projections expect DeAndre Hopkins to be a more integral piece of his team's passing game in this week's game (19.3% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (13.6% in games he has played).
As it relates to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Kansas City Chiefs profiles as the best in the NFL this year.
DeAndre Hopkins's 74.7% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a noteworthy gain in his receiving skills over last season's 56.6% rate.
This year, the shaky Panthers pass defense has conceded a monstrous 68.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 7th-worst rate in football.

Favors Under

An extreme rushing game script is implied by the Chiefs being a big 11-point favorite this week.
At the present time, the 10th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Kansas City Chiefs.
DeAndre Hopkins's 3.1 adjusted catches per game this season reflects a substantial regression in his pass-catching skills over last season's 4.4 mark.

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