DeAndre Hopkins Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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DeAndre Hopkins

NFL · Player Props

DeAndre Hopkins

WR · Tennessee Titans

Receptions

Tennessee Titans vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 8:02 PM UTC

Analysis

DeAndre Hopkins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-180/+140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +140 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Titans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 1.9% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
Our trusted projections expect DeAndre Hopkins to notch 7.5 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among wide receivers.
DeAndre Hopkins has been a key part of his team's passing attack, earning a Target Share of 28.6% this year, which places him in the 94th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Titans to be the 3rd-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 52.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The model projects the Titans to call the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.9 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 3rd-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Titans this year (just 52.0 per game on average).
The Titans offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative influence on all air attack metrics across the board.
DeAndre Hopkins's pass-catching performance diminished this season, notching just 4.7 adjusted catches compared to 6.8 last season.

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