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DeAndre Hopkins

DeAndre Hopkins Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 18

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
DeAndre Hopkins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-109/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -109.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in football.
  • While DeAndre Hopkins has earned 9.6% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much bigger part of Baltimore's passing attack in this week's game at 15.0%.
  • The Steelers defense has given up the 5th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (161.0) to WRs this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Ravens are big underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.
  • Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Ravens to pass on 60.3% of their chances: the 9th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
  • The Ravens offense has played at the 3rd-most sluggish pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 30.46 seconds per snap.
  • After averaging 57.0 air yards per game last year, DeAndre Hopkins has gotten worse this year, now pacing 33.0 per game.
  • The Ravens O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

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