DeAndre Hopkins Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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NFL · Player Props

DeAndre Hopkins

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans · Week 16, 2024

Updated Dec 22, 2024 4:01 AM EST

Analysis

DeAndre Hopkins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 45.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 39.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 8th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.8% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 2nd-most plays in the league have been run by the Chiefs this year (a colossal 61.4 per game on average).
The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may slide.
When talking about pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Chiefs ranks as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year.

Favors Under

A rushing game script is suggested by the Chiefs being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game.
DeAndre Hopkins has compiled quite a few less air yards this year (61.0 per game) than he did last year (119.0 per game).
DeAndre Hopkins's 40.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 73.3.
DeAndre Hopkins's 45.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season represents a noteable regression in his receiving skills over last season's 61.0 figure.
With a subpar 2.28 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (12th percentile) this year, DeAndre Hopkins rates among the top wide receivers in the game in football in the open field.