DeAndre Hopkins Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

NFL · Player Props

DeAndre Hopkins

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving TD

Arizona Cardinals vs New Orleans Saints · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 20, 2022 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

DeAndre Hopkins Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+140/-170).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +150 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 130.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have called the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 68.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
DeAndre Hopkins has accumulated a colossal 81.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 86th percentile among wideouts.
DeAndre Hopkins's 54.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in football: 91st percentile for wideouts.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects DeAndre Hopkins to be much less involved in his team's passing offense near the end zone this week (24.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (30.6% in games he has played).
The Arizona Cardinals offensive line has afforded their QB just 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.