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Dawson Knox Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+690/-800).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +690 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +690.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Bills have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 58.8 plays per game.Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.The Buffalo O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all passing game statistics across the board.The New England Patriots defense has surrendered the 6th-most receiving touchdowns in the NFL to TEs: 0.50 per game this year.Opposing teams have run for the 3rd-fewest TDs in the league (0.50 per game) against the Patriots defense this year.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a heavy favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of a reliance on running than their standard game plan.The projections expect the Buffalo Bills as the 5th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.6% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.The model projects the Bills to run the 4th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.Dawson Knox has compiled significantly fewer air yards this year (11.0 per game) than he did last year (20.0 per game).Dawson Knox's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 70.5% to 56.2%.
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