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Dawson Knox

Dawson Knox Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 19

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Dawson Knox Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+380/-450).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +375 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +380.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bills will be rolling out backup QB Josh Allen in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 125.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in football (37.5 per game) this year.
  • Dawson Knox has been a big part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 16.2% this year, which puts him in the 80th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
  • In regards to air yards, Dawson Knox grades out in the towering 75th percentile among tight ends this year, averaging a superb 21.0 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills to be the 6th-most run-heavy team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 48.5% red zone run rate.
  • Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 8th-lowest clip in football vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year (67.4% Adjusted Completion%).
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers project as the 2nd-best group of LBs in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

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