My Account Log Out
 
 
Dawson Knox

Dawson Knox Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Buffalo Bills vs Philadelphia Eagles

 
 
 
Dawson Knox Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+320/-370).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -420 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -370.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • With an elite 16.1% Red Zone Target Share (80th percentile) this year, Dawson Knox rates as one of the tight ends with the biggest workloads near the end zone in football.
  • Dawson Knox has accounted for a monstrous 10.1% of his team's air yards this year: 81st percentile when it comes to TEs.
  • Dawson Knox's 22.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 16.1.
  • The Bills offensive line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 3-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's game, implying more of a focus on running than their usual game plan.
  • Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills to pass on 50.4% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
  • At the present time, the 7th-most run-focused team in the league near the goal line (48.0% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Buffalo Bills.
  • The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 125.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • This year, the fierce Eagles defense has conceded a feeble 63.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the smallest rate in football.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2025 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™