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Dawson Knox

Dawson Knox Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

Cleveland Browns vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Dawson Knox Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+455/-470).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -540 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -470.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have 131.0 plays on offense called: the 5th-most on the slate this week.
  • Dawson Knox has been a big part of his team's offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 15.0% this year, which places him in the 76th percentile when it comes to TEs.
  • Dawson Knox ranks in the 79th percentile when it comes to tight ends this year with a remarkable 9.8% of his offense's air yards accumulated.
  • Dawson Knox's 21.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 16.1.
  • In regards to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Bills profiles as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game's line suggests an extreme running game script for the Bills, who are heavily favored by 10.5 points.
  • The leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills as the least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 50.5% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • The model projects the Bills to be the 9th-most run-heavy offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 47.3% red zone run rate.
  • The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Browns defense this year: 3rd-fewest in football.

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