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Dawson Knox

Dawson Knox Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 15

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Dawson Knox Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+480/-580).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -540 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -580.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Dawson Knox has earned a massive 9.6% of his team's air yards this year: 80th percentile among TEs.
  • When it comes to pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all passing offense stats), the O-line of the Bills profiles as the best in the NFL this year.
  • This year, the stout Patriots run defense has given up a measly 0.38 rushing TDs per game to opposing offenses: the 2nd-smallest rate in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 53.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • At the present time, the 8th-most run-heavy team in the league in the red zone (47.2% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Buffalo Bills.
  • The leading projections forecast this game to have the fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 124.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The New England Patriots defense has allowed the 7th-fewest receiving touchdowns in the NFL to tight ends: 0.31 per game this year.
  • The New England Patriots defensive ends profile as the worst collection of DEs in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.

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