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Dawson Knox Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills

Dawson Knox Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+420/-490).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -500 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -490.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: most in the league.

The model projects Dawson Knox to be much more involved in his offense's pass game near the goal line in this game (12.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (7.5% in games he has played).

When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills profiles as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year.

The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has allowed the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (80.9%) vs. TEs this year (80.9%).

This year, the deficient Pittsburgh Steelers defense has been torched for a staggering 0.64 receiving TDs per game to opposing TEs: the largest rate in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bills are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a running game script.

The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 10th-most run-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 47.0% red zone run rate.

Right now, the 2nd-slowest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Buffalo Bills.

The weather forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.

Dawson Knox's 66.6% Adjusted Catch Rate this year represents an impressive drop-off in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 70.5% rate.

More Dawson Knox Player Props

Dawson Knox TouchdownsPlayer Prop Week 13

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills

Dawson Knox Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13