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Dawson Knox

Dawson Knox Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 10

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Dawson Knox Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+465/-570).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +530 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +465.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • In regards to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense stats), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year.
  • Opposing teams have completed passes at the highest rate in the NFL vs. the Dolphins defense this year (77.8% Adjusted Completion%).
  • This year, the poor Miami Dolphins defense has conceded a massive 0.67 receiving TDs per game to opposing tight ends: the 4th-largest rate in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 8-point advantage, the Bills are overwhelmingly favored in this week's game, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their normal approach.
  • Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills to pass on 53.2% of their chances: the 5th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Buffalo Bills to be the 8th-most run-focused offense in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 46.1% red zone run rate.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to have only 121.8 total plays called: the fewest out of all the games this week.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 28.2 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 2nd-fewest in football.

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