My Account Log Out
 
 
Dawson Knox

Dawson Knox Receptions
Player Prop Week 6

Atlanta Falcons vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Dawson Knox Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+135/-185).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -175 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -185.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.
  • The predictive model expects Dawson Knox to be a more integral piece of his offense's pass attack in this week's contest (12.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (6.2% in games he has played).
  • The Bills O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 3.5-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of a focus on rushing than their usual game plan.
  • Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bills are forecasted by the projections to run only 62.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 27.0 pass attempts per game versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: fewest in the league.
  • With a paltry 1.0 adjusted catches per game (25th percentile) this year, Dawson Knox has been as one of the worst pass-game tight ends in the NFL.
  • Dawson Knox's 66.3% Adjusted Catch% this year indicates a noteable regression in his receiving prowess over last year's 70.5% mark.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2025 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™