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Dawson Knox Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+120/-160).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +130 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +120.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Bills have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 58.8 plays per game.Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.The Buffalo O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all passing game statistics across the board.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a heavy favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of a reliance on running than their standard game plan.The projections expect the Buffalo Bills as the 5th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.6% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.The model projects the Bills to run the 4th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.Dawson Knox's 42.7% Route Participation Rate this season represents a noteable decline in his passing offense volume over last season's 54.6% rate.With a paltry 1.0 adjusted catches per game (20th percentile) this year, Dawson Knox stands as one of the bottom pass-game tight ends in football.
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